A peculiar stillness pervades the spanking new Hong Kong offices that are home to Mark Norbom chief executive

A peculiar stillness pervades the spanking new Hong Kong offices that are home to Mark Norbom, chief executive of Prudential Corporation Asia. And with those sorts of odds, will investors stay away for long?. Yet taken as a sum of all its parts, this is a burgeoning industry.According to Mr Betti at Ovum, the global online betting market took more than $6bn (£3.3bn) in wagers last year, and is set to hit $11.9bn by 2009. And while Rank’s latest interim gaming revenues were up 20 per cent, profits were dented by higher costs and weaker margins.Whichever sector you look at – from established bricks and mortar operators to new boys on the block such as PartyGaming – the risks are there. Bingo operator Gala, which offers an online version of the game, is also expected to float.This is where much of the smart money is going, because a well-known brand name is everything online as new punters tend to prefer companies they know and already use.Success is not guaranteed, though: casino operator Stanley Leisure’s loss-making e-gaming operations are under review.

In its most recent results, its interactive business accounted for 26 per cent of group earnings before tax and interest.Meanwhile, Rank owns online betting business Blue Square and offers various games including poker and bingo. Coral Eurobet also runs online gambling operations and will join the new wave hitting the market when owner Charterhouse launches an £800m float this autumn. As a recent Goldman Sachs note says: “Online remains the one area where William Hill comfortably exceeds Ladbrokes, with margins of 51 per cent compared with 31 per cent”. That gives ladbrokes- poker site an estimated 35 per cent of the European market – though it is the US where the big money lies.William Hill is ahead of Ladbrokes overall. “With Sporting Index, there’s a tribe of people who use it on a regular basis,” says a company insider “They are passionate and they have an opinion. It’s more of a culture.”Sporting Index offers gaming, but players can lay their hands to lose if they so wish and still make money.Cantor Index and City Index are the other spread-betting leaders, although their focus is less sports-oriented. Cantor Index is owned by the American trading giant Canter Fitzgerald; City Index is part of Intercapital Private, a major shareholder in ICAP, the London-listed derivatives broker.Bricks and mortarBookmaker Ladbrokes, part of Hilton, claims to be Europe’s “most popular poker site” with more than 93,000 active customers – a 182 per cent leap on the previous year.

Founded in 1992, it was snapped up by Duke Street Capital for £53m in 2002, and the private equity firm is now looking to sell for between £100m and £200m. Around 40 interested parties, both trade and finance, have already registered their interest.There is a perception of lower risk when compared to the PartyGamings of this world. But the Square Mile’s denizens aren’t investing – they’re playing. Spread betting allow punters to gamble on fairly much anything, from stock market swings and sporting results to the outcome of the Conservative leadership contest.Sporting Index claims to be the world’s largest sport and entertainment spread better, with a market share of around 70 per cent. Existing operations will simply move offshore.Then watch the bookies admit that perhaps exchanges aren’t the devil’s own after all and launch their own.Spread bettingThe City loves this sort of gambling. They claim the sites pay more favourable taxes, creating an unfair playing field, and are lobbying the Government. But even if they win this battle, it is unlikely to finish off exchanges.

PartyShare , for example, plans to pay players a quarterly dividend.Betting exchangesThese allow punters to lay and match bets online The best known is Betfair, the world’s largest. Founded by Andrew Black and Edward Wray, it is now gearing up to float and could fetch from £500m to £1bn. Rivals include Betdaq, although in terms of market share, it runs a distant second.Betfair offers poker as well, and the introduction of the game helped bolster turnover by 61 per cent, to £271.m, and push annual pre-tax profits up to £107.1m. But most agree that betting exchanges cater for a different sort of punter to dedicated casino sites.”Exchanges are like the zeitgeist – they have all this amazing new technology and people want to be part of the movement,” argues one insider.Bookies, however, hate them.

“Churn was a lot higher than expected, and when [other] people come to market and are able to spend lots, will you be able to keep [customers] then?” asks Dario Betti, senior analyst at research firm Ovum Some are seeking ways round thus round this, however. But the issue still hit its float valuation.The other danger is how long the craze will last. What shocked most analysts was PartyGaming’s poor retention rates, as casual customers logged on and played – but then didn’t come back. Operators get round this by basing themselves offshore, but the authorities are not happy. “It’s difficult to see the current situation existing in the medium term,” says a City analyst. “They are not paying [US] tax and the Americans won’t like that.”PartyGaming claims that, based on case law, its US operations are legal.

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